715... and Counting

One more blurb before we move on to other topics (at least for about another 41 home runs, which should happen in about another 320-500 AB's). Barry just skipped by The Babe. Just to give equal time to contrary opinions:

Here are two pics of Hank Aaron, one from his rookie season. Notice the slender build, 24" waist, and narrow shoulders. On the right, is a photo of Hammerin' Hank hitting #714 in Riverfront stadium. Notice the much larger ass. Also, note the movement to switch to metric, in center field.

Here, see Barry from his rookie season on the left. Notice the the bling and the look of disdain on his face. On the right, you can see a fun photo showing Barry and Babe, side by side (though, this is a photo of younger Babe, not older, fatter, hot dog eating Babe). Notice Barry's broader shoulders and big ass, as well. Perhaps a commonality among guys that hit 714 or more home runs is the large ass. I think that I met some women at a bachelorette party last night that may have a shot at 714 home runs. Then again, I may be hitting a few home runs myself.

So what does all of this mean? Well, people get bigger as they get older. Some just get big and fat, like Babe or Boomer Wells. Others stay looking pretty good, like Hank or Barry. And like I've said before, why does no one ever talk about something as interesting as how Hank Aaron put up his best two seasons at ages 37 and 39? Looking a little more closely at it (http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/aaronha01.shtml), you also see that Hank also did it while putting up numbers that were well above his career rates (about 10 HR/AB in those two seasons, compared to a career 16.4). Could it be that it's possible to dial in as a power hitter, late in your career, despite being a much more all-around player earlier in your career? Everyone is talking about how unprecedented Barry's change is. I think that you only have to look at Barry's next hurdle.

I'm not saying that Hank was on anything. I'm just saying that maybe we're all blowing things out of proportion w/ Bonds. If anything, the things that we are looking at probably aren't the things that we should be looking at. You can look at general trends across time. But, for the most direct comparison, looking at stats that compare a player his peers makes the most sense (normalizing the environment as best as you can). Then you can take these normalized numbers and try to make better sense of them. Look here (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/OPSplus_career.shtml) for a list of all-time OPS+ leaders (an average OPS = 100, and 150 means that you are 150% better than the league average). This is a relatively crude way of doing it, but it does show this comparison.

On the bright side, we probably won't have to hear about this for a little while, as Barry chases Hank.

-Chairman

On Shuffle

Let's see. Barry Bonds. Finally caught the Bambino. Hate it or love it, Barry Bonds is one of the top 3offensive players of all-time. Ruth, Williams, Bonds. You can't really separate Ruth and Williams, since Williams lost about 4.5 seasons to WWII and Korea. Aaron had the HR's, but was just really solid for a long time. Mays fell off the cliff after 35. Mantle had a drinking problem and also fell off the cliff in his mid-30's. Where does Bonds fit? Close to Ruth and Williams, with or without steroids.

He probably could have been NL MVP every year from '90 to '04, with the exceptions of '91 (off-year), '98 (McGwire and Sosa) and '99 (injured). He's got 8 Gold Gloves. The numbers are phenomenal. I don't know what you would say the effects of steriods were for this guy. If he was on them, it would be from '00-'03. He was tested and clean in '04. And there wasn't any suspicion until '00. Sure, maybe 73 is tainted. But really, the rest of the numbers from those years aren't that far off from '04, and are really a product of being walked so much (compared to '91-'00 where the walk numbers are high, but not so ridiculous). Net effect? Replace the numbers from '00-'04 with the averages from '93-'99. Still phenomenal. I think that his HR's are inflated, but only by maybe 40. Remember, if he wasn't walked so much, he's still be right up there. And whenever Barry's been on the field, he's been able to hit. The most telling thing- the numbers didn't dive after they started testing in '04, unlike Palmerio and Sosa. And since he's come back last season, his OPS is right around .985, and he's hitting a HR every 13 AB's, numbers that everyone not named Albert Pujols would envy.

Update: ESPN Page 2 just put up an article that looks at this from a similar standpoint. They suggest that Barry would lose about 98 home runs, had he been on steroids since '99 (apparently, it was '99, not '00 that was his first season allegedly on steroids). Interesting read, though it's primarily taken from the direct, physical effects of steroids, and they take away home runs by examining home run distances. They mention some interesting points if you were to critique the article. A big one that I think they should have used was the comparison to '90-'99 Bonds (with '90 being the season that Bonds made The Leap). For example, they could have pretty easily compared how Bonds did in the "dog days" from '99 onward compared to before '99. I seem to recall Bonds being pretty good down the stretch, though that may just be a selective memory. Steroids may or may not have had an effect there and should be explored more closely. Similarly, they could have examined the distances of his home runs prior to '99, and seen if the makeup was significantly different, and model the results to see if they fit their hypothesis of 20 pounds = 9 feet. But, you need to compare it to his previous performance, not just throw it out there arbitrarily. Also, the additional walks certainly matter. I have a suspicion that if you make the comparison based on pre-'99 vs. post-'99, you don't take away 98 home runs, but something closer to what I suggested of about 40. One other critique - while they talked about confidence (though they didn't take any home runs away), associated with taking steroids, I have to say that confidence is one thing that Bonds, from any stage of his career, did NOT lack.

Next.

Just booked a flight to Los Angeles. Conference in Long Beach from June 8-10. Show up. Get some sun. Drive around Cali. Present some stuff on Saturday morning. I'll do a little networking, and may even check out some research that other folks are doing. But the main thing: chill out and relax. Best part? I get additional research funds for this trip since it's actually at a good conference (Marketing and Public Policy Conference). Also, I just found out that I've got a conference next February in Las Vegas. Again, this is another one of the good conferences, so I get additional funds, as well. This is incredible. TFS: Vegas. On the U's tab. I'm either going to make a million bucks or die trying. Wow. I'm digging this whole conference scene, especially now that I'm done with classes. Get out, do a little travel, present a little research, goof off for a few days, and get reimbursed for my troubles. I get research funds. I may as well use them up for something cool.

Next.

It's time to dial in on my summer paper. Can't go on conferences if I don't pass my summer paper. In fact, I don't get my PhD, if I don't pass my summer paper. Better get moving. My best guess? 45 pages, before I add figures and references. Uggh. But it's not that bad. Of the 4 areas that I'm going to review, I know 2 of them pretty well, just took a class on 1 of them, and have an OK starting point for the last one. Of course, I don't have a clue how it'll all fit together until I actually do it.

Next.

Played basketball again today. Still getting the legs back, slowly. I'm trying to be smart. 2 or 3 games, and that's it. Get some treatment for the knees, as well. I think that it'll take me a little longer to loosen up when I play, but I think that I can get some of the quickness back, though I suspect that jumping may never get back. But, fundamentally, I'm still good. Played a big guy who's normally pretty solid. Maybe 6'2", 210. Absolutely shut him down. Muscled him up so that he didn't get anything clean in close. Annoyed his shot by keeping a hand in the face. Kept him completely off the boards. I didn't do much on offense, other than hitting a couple spot-ups from outside, but the teammates took care of it. Felt solid. Now, I'd like to get back to guarding people on the wing. That will come slowly. Hopefully by the end of the summer.

I think that I've let my classes get in the way of my intentions to exercise more and cook more. I think that now that classes are done with (for good!), I'm going to spend 1 or 2 hours being active every day, whether it be playing ultimate (we'll see about that), basketball, riding the bike, or lifting. And I'll start cooking more. It's time to get into better shape, and get back to being athletic. And by the looks of it, it's 3am. It's also time to start sleeping at a more normal schedule :-) We'll see how that goes.

-Chairman

Just in case...

...anyone reads my food-related blog, we've moved URL's: http://foodgeekchronicles.blogspot.com

Still the same restaurant-quality site ;-)

-Chairman

Project Self: Seasons and Cycles

This weekend I had my first wedding of the summer. And as it stands, it looks to be my last until maybe early fall when my cousin gets married. This stands in sharp contrast to the previous 4 summers where I averaged about 8 weddings a summer, and stood up in 5 weddings. I'm sort of looking forward to not having a huge list of weddings to worry about. Plus, I'll get to spend a little more money on myself ;-)

As I think ahead, I've really only got a few weddings that I've got left for my circle of friends. As I think back, I am sort of in awe that things have pretty much worked out. My friends seem to have gotten it right. I look at the marraiges that I've attended, and they just seem to work. That old crew of guys that we had: Matt, Ed, Reig, Stu, C-Lauff, Westy, GQ, Schultzie, Dunn. They've all gone off and gotten married. Only a few from that era remain single. Me, Mikey, and Curran (which, for those of you who are long-time readers, are the three involved in the bet). But I look back, and think happily about how I've been influential in all of these folks, and how they've been influential to me. These were the folks that I walked with side-by-side everyday. And they've done well for themselves.

What I find to be more interesting is that I think that my life is moving in a different direction. While there are certainly more weddings that I will be going to (Mikey, Curran, True, Brian, CJ, Marshal, Darren, JK, Curran's 2nd, Curran's 3rd, etc.), I think that the era where I was able to network with and actually tangibly influence so many others is gone. And as I look in the mirror, maybe that season of life has ended for me because I've just lost the fire inside. Perhaps I'm too satisfied with what my life looks like to worry about being a difference-maker for people. Perhaps, I let myself get too bogged down in my own work and interests that I don't let the rest of the world in. And perhaps, I like it better that way because it's a much lower risk, with a relatively high personal reward that's at stake. After all, if I don't have people letting me down, then life seems to be dandy.

But since when did I focus on minimizing risk?

I mean, I inherently minimize risk because I see things statistically and analytically. But that's never my focus. My focus was always on getting the best outcome, and I was always okay with taking on some risk. And since when did I stop taking chances on people in a real way?

Probably about 4 years ago. Many of you know that story. I'll leave it alone for now. But when I look - it's been 4 years since I've really, consistently invested myself in others, as a matter of policy. Now, there are a couple linkages here and there. But it's not the general trend. I'm too comfortable in just taking care of myself (which I've gotten surprisingly good at). But I sort of miss the benefits that would come when I was taking care of others, as well as myself.

Perhaps, I can just chalk it up to the seasonal nature of life. After all, many things just seem to ebb and flow with time. The stock market, people's taste in fashion, cultural values, and even responses to technology all seem to go in cycles. Why not me? It's certainly an easier explanation than whatever else I can come up with.

Anyway, we'll see where else this goes. Maybe next time I'll tackle a more social issue.

-Chairman

Quick Thoughts

Just a brief update on my Reds: 19-8, best record in baseball. Just took 2 out of 3 from the Astros and took 2 straight from the Cards. We're still mashing the ball for the most part, scoring about 6 runs a game. Happily, we're only giving up 5 runs a game. Oddly enough, we're actually getting outhit a little bit by opponents. Where the difference has been is with the small-ball type stuff: drawing walks (almost 2 more than our opponents) and stealing bases (16 more SB than our opponents). And if you look at this, this adds up to close to a run a game.

NBA hoops is fun to watch again. Lots if intrigue in just about all of the series, save the Dallas/Memphis and Detroit/Milwaukee series. In case anyone hasn't been watching, we're also seeing Kobe Bryant make a case for MVP. I think that the Lakers will beat the Suns in game 6, and then they'll find a way to beat the Clipers. After that, who knows. But every game that's on TV with Kobe Bryant has pretty much become must-see TV for hoops fans.

And to wrap up the three major sports, I have a couple questions. What were the Texans thinking when they passed on Reggie Bush? Does Marcus Vick regret being a moron the last couple years, and has he learned from it? Will the Bengals get a legit player out of their first-rounder? Why do I get the feeling that Steve McNair in Baltimore would be something that Tennessee will regret for the next few years?

Work on my end is moving along. Just got some edits done for a journal submission that should be going out in a couple days. Still have to prep a discussion for Thursday. Need to edit some experimental materials for a study that I'm running on Thursday. For classes, there are a couple papers to churn out for this coming Monday and next Friday. And I need to get things rolling on my summer paper. I think that I've got a lot of moving parts that look good, but need to get a jump start on it.

What's interesting is that just when I think that I've got a nice looking portfolio of projects, there's new stuff coming in. My advisor has at least 2 new projects that we can start up, one, that's a little more theoretical, that examines how low functional literates will use different choice strategies when making decisions, and one, that's more direct in it's focus, that looks at the implications of what we know about low functional literates and how the interact with the world of retailing. It's funny, because it sort of feels overwhelming at times, but it seems to normal to just add on more stuff. And it'll all get done somehow.

Fun stuff - get work done this weekend, churn out work next week, wedding up in Wisconsin next weekend, and hit the ground running on my summer paper after that. We'll figure out what needs to happen with these other research projects. I do need to book some plane tickets for my visit out to Long Beach in June. That needs to happen soon.

-Chairman