Illini Musings

So our squad has been hit by the injury bug. What's great is that we've been competitive, despite not really having Jamar and Randle for much of the season. Add on Richie's affinity for beer causing him to still not be in rhythm, and you've got some definite chemistry issues. But you know what? Having a lead on Maryland with 8 minutes left to go, as well as playing Arizona tough the entire game were both eye-opening losses. In the good sort of way.

I like this team.

Whereas I thought that last year's squad never fully bloomed because it deferred to Dee, and sort of underachieved down the stretch, I think that this year's squad is going to overachieve a little bit. I actually think that we'll make a deeper run than we did last year. Here's my case.

We've got better point guard play this year. Dee was a shooting guard, really. Chester is the real deal at point. He plays D, he moves the rock, he penetrates when it's there, and he can shoot just fine. Plus, having Trent, our next White Hope, there as a backup point, and maybe even as a quick jolt of outside shooting is good. I think that he'll be a legitimate player that will complement Chester well. He won't be as good as all of the fans want him to be (or think he is), but he'll be alright.

We'll have more experience at the 2. While Dee was a shooting guard, he also wasn't. Richie has shown glimpses of a mid-range game which makes him a threat to score 17 night in and night out. Plus, Jamar will get back and contribute his offense (and his improving D, as well). And perhaps most importantly, Calvin is looking a little less lost out there. He'll still mystify me on the offensive end at times, but his effort has picked up on the defensive end. He's the one who has the pure athleticism to be very intriguing (at at times infuriating), though. He can make the little baseline J, which is a spot on the floor that you can get to consistently. That alone makes him good for 6 points a game. Add on an outside shot and a couple hustle buckets, and all of a sudden, seeing Calvin go for a dozen isn't that surprising. Plus, he has the capability of guarding bigger guys, much like Luther, and to a lesser extent Deron, did for us a couple years ago. If you want to run 3 guards, you have to have at least one guy like that. We can go for a few minutes at a time with Chester, and two of the Jamar/Richie/Trent trio, but that catches up to you. Doing that for too long, you just give up too much on the defensive end.

Watching our bigs play, I love how much Pruitt is demanding the ball this year. He's always known that he's stronger than most guys he's up against. Now he seems to believe that he's better. Which is huge. He's moving well on D, though the rotations aren't always there. And he's running th floor. He's a threat to go 18 and 10 every night. And oddly enough, so is Warren.

My man Warren has always been a bit of a savant. He knows how to score. The shot is sort of ugly. The shot selection is sort of ugly. But it's strangely effective. I don't even question it anymore. I just sort of chuckle. And defensively, he's always been a decent rebounder. But where he's improved leaps and bounds is with his overall awareness. He is much less lost on offense now that he's one of the primary options. His weakness was always not knowing where to go when he was away from the ball. Now, the ball screens and motion are going to his side. He's the one who's setting screens for the pick and roll or slipping screens for the quick fade. On defense, he's also a little better off. He's playing against a lot of 4's, whereas in the past he'd often come in at the 3. Against 4's, he's much more likely to go from block to block. In the past, he's be asked to defend on the perimeter a lot. And that's where he'd get lost in traffic or on back-cuts. I don't know if he's just improved his knowledge of the game, or if it's just situational, but I'm not yelling, "Warren!" nearly as much now.

An intriguing freshman is Carlwell. He's awfully light on his feet and runs well for a huge guy. He'll get stronger physically over the years (if he works like Pruitt has the last 2 years, watch out), but he has to be willing to do two things: The first is to assert himself in the low block - I think that he's used to guys just giving up position to him because he's so huge, but he doesn't fight for his spot on the block hard enough. I don't know what sort of moves he has there, but he should be big enough to make up for any deficiencies there. The other thing is to play defense with his feet, and not his hands, particularly away from the hoop. He likes to lean in with his arms on players, which makes him smaller and foul prone. I like his energy, though. I think that he'll be a player, as well.

edited, 12/05/06: Another freshman who may get some run in Richard Semrau. Now, I know that he's white. But he may still be an alright player. He's got the frame at 6'9", 230, but he could stand to add on 10 pounds, which he will over the next couple years. He's very active, is actually a pretty quick leaper, and plays with energy. I have no idea what his offensive game looks like, other than hustle points. I think that he'll eventually be a very good player (I can see him being darned good with Carlwell in 2 years). I don't see him playing a ton this year, unless Bruce gets away from the 3-guard offense a little more (which I'd actually be thrilled with - I'd say that running Randle at 3, Warren at the high post, and Pruitt at the low block is probably our best lineup, and likely how Bill Self envisioned using Warren and Randle, and that). And at this point, Marcus Arnold is almost an afterthought unless we're in deep foul trouble like we were against Arizona. He's just not quite big enough to handle the bigs, not quite quick enough to handle the wings, and not quite explosive enough to be a consistent offensive threat. And sadly, I think that I'll be saying the same things about Charles Jackson. I don't know. I wonder if he won't (or maybe shouldn't is the right word) go back to football, preferrably for the Illini, if all the hype was true.

But the biggest question that we've got is at the swingman. The only player that we have that really fits the profile is Randle. I think that he'll shoot much better this year than last year. I don't think that there's a mathematical alternative, actually. But he's the one guy that can shut down wing scorers for us. He's the one guy that I want consistently taking the ball to the hoop for us on offense. He's the one guy that makes us different from a good mid-major team. Those teams have good little guards and big guys who make themselves into players. They don't often get natural wing talents that are 6'7". Those guys go to the BCS schools. I like Randle's game. I think that he can do what the Pistons asked of Tayshaun Prince of a couple years ago when they were winning championships. Defense, rebounding, hustle points, and timely shooting. But what he really brings to us is an attitude change on perimeter defense. Without him there, we'll scrap with you, we'll work hard, we'll keep hanging on your hip, and we'll pester you. With him here, we've got swagger, we'll shut you down, and we'll take your lunch money.

So here's the prognosis for this team. We've just had a bump in the road, but we'll probably end up 12-3 in non-conference play. We've got a nice conference schedule, this year, as we only play Ohio St. and Wisconsin once, both at home. I think that 10-6 is a reasonable prediction, though really 13-3 isn't out of the question, if this team jells. Tough games look to be Ohio St., Wisconsin, at Indiana, at Michigan, at Michigan St., and at Iowa. But our last 9 games look pretty manageable. So, we'll be somewhere around 22-9 going into the Big Ten tourney. If we can get to the semis, we'll be 24-10, heading into the dance, probably good for a 6 or 7 seed. I think that this team will do well in the dance, and maybe even make a little noise. Let's just say that I wouldn't mind another shot at Arizona this March.

-Chairman