Westy's Web(er)

So my reply to Westy's comment for my Caught in a Web(er) post was too long, so I'm turning it into a follow-up post.

I'm not making any claims that Matta would have taken the job. I'm just saying that we should have gone after him hard, and that he would have been a great choice (and one that I would have very much been for). As I recall, I was in the minority then - Illini Nation wasn't big on Matta, and preferred Bruce and the guy from Creighton (Dana Altman, maybe?) who we definitely sent feelers out to, but explicitly turned us down. I was concerned about the Gene Keady pedigree, but was open to the idea that he could do well (he had done a really nice job building that SIU program). But I dug Matta, as the job that he did at Xavier was solid.

In any case, I'd argue that the best bet for making valid points would be to illustrate things that Bruce has done well and to explain why things are looking up for the Illini, and not to try to point out things that Matta hasn't done (particularly with the hypothetical question of how Matta would do with less elite players). Because at that point, you're sort of making stretches, I'd venture.

With regard to the claim that Matta would not be able to do well w/out talent, there are two issues there. One, he gets talent, so the point is moot. Also, getting talent is part of the job description. It's not like there's a salary cap and a forced draft like in the pros. And, two, his first season at OSU, he took a team that was slightly sub-.500 the year before, and won 20 games, despite being on probation (no post-season). And even when he missed the dance the year after Oden/Conley left, they went off and won the NIT. And in one fewer season (and 2 fewer post-season opportunities), Matta has 3 trips to the Sweet 16 and beyond, compared to only 2 for Bruce.

What I'm particularly impressed by is that Matta took Ohio St. to a high ranking last year with Evan Turner (a wing) as the lead player. And has turned around and done it again with Sullinger (a big), with a team that runs different points of emphases on offense. Last year, it was letting Turner be the man from the wing and top of the key, taking advantage of his size over smaller guards. This year it's running things through the low block, with Sullinger and Diebler on the same side of the offense.

As for Craft/Diebler, I just picked two white dudes who got run with Ohio St., and who seem to have been placed into good situations by Matta. We may have different definitions of "top recruits." When I use that term, I'm thinking national top 40 sorts of players. Guys that project out to eventually being lead players on NCAA teams. In any case, I had no idea what sort of hype they had in HS, but...

...according to Rivals, Craft was the #111 rated HS player from 2010. Diebler was the #60 player from 2007. Certainly both legit major-level D-I sort of guys. Part of my point was that even the white kids that Matta gets are legit players, whereas we give a lot of run to guys like Meachem, who were a cut below the the sort of players that legit contenders run out there. But we can use those guys as case studies.

Neither was the caliber of recruit of, say, Rich McBride (#31 in 2003), which would probably the most obvious point of comparison that I would make with Diebler. There's probably not much argument to the claim that Matta got more out of Diebler than Bruce did out of Richie (who I wanted to like, and who I think took more flack from Illini Nation than he deserved).

In terms of recruiting ratings, Diebler was in the same ballpark as Brian Randle (#56 in 2003) or Dimitri MacCamey (#72 in 2007)or Brian Carlwell (#77 in 2006) or Shaun Pruitt (#78 in 2004). I'd venture a guess that most folks would prefer Diebler's college career over the Illini guys (save possibly MacCamey). Craft is in the ballpark of Mike Tisdale (#125 in 2007), Joseph Bertrand (#128 in 2009) and Tyler Griffey (#120 in 2009). We'll see how these guys pan out. I'm very pleased with how Tisdale developed, actually (despite the howls from Illini Nation).

Don't get me wrong, I think that these recruiting ratings (once you get past the top 5 sort of can't miss kids) are generally nice for ballpark ideas of where players are, but are largely junk when you dissect them. But it's not like Bruce hasn't gotten some kids that were recruited by other schools, and has been working with a bunch of walk-ons. And I'm sure that Matta has whiffed with some "top recruits" as well (though nothing comes to mind quickly). And he's had a lot of guys leave early for the NBA (obviously, Oden, Conley, Turner, but also Koufos and Mullen), while we've had guys leave for other, less awesome reasons.

But once you start comparing Weber to guys like Coach K and Roy Williams, who have a bunch of Final 4's and multiple titles on their resume, you're stretching a lot. Coach K took some time to build up the Duke program, but from his 4th year, forward, has never missed the dance (even in '94-'95, he was 9-3, before he took his leave of absence), and has made the Sweet 16 in 17 of 25 years. Roy Williams has been head coach 23 years, and after his first season when Kansas was ineligible for the postseason, has made 21 dances, with the Sweet 16 or better in 14 out of 21 tries. Those guys are absolutely untouchable in terms out their performances. They just don't have stretches like Bruce has had, and if they had, there would be all sorts of rumblings. In fact, about halfway through the season, before North Carolina got hot (right around when Drew quit on the team, coincidentally), there were rumblings about Roy perhaps having lost touch, despite having all these McD's All-American sorts of players. I never bought into it because of the track record, but still, it's realistic to say that rumblings emerge when the expected success doesn't show up.

Your better comparison would be, say, Billy Donovan. Your argument would be better suited to say that if you get a guy that builds a program, you have to be patient with him, and just wait for that right mix of players to show up (like Horford, Noah, Brewer, and Co.). I'd counter with the argument that there still needs to be flexibility to allow people to grow and develop their skill sets and that the systems should allow for these different skills. And we'd argue about the philosophy of having a firm system in place, versus having flexibility. You can talk about how Bobby Knight ran that motion offense for years and years and won a bunch of titles. I'd talk about how his protege, Coach K, has updated the look of Duke basketball, taking what he's picked up with Team USA. You'd talk about how John Wooden did things a certain way for years. I'd argue about how Gene Keady did things the same way for as many years, but underachieved. And the argument would continue.

But at least, we'd be focusing on Bruce and the Illini program, and not Matta (which really, was my intent, and if you look at the entirety of my original post, most of the middle of that post was all thoughts about the Illini program - really, I was just using Matta/Self as the comparison points because they are natural comparisons in my mind and because they're the top 2 teams in basketball this year).

Incidentally, I'm not so sure that Matt Painter has really surpassed Bruce.. VCU? A play-in 11-seed? Yikes. I think that the Boiler Faithful may be about to boil over :-)

-Chairman

Breaking News: Chairman Signs with El Paso

Multiple sources have confirmed that The Chairman and El Paso have officially agreed to a 6-year deal, worth an estimated $0.87 million. The Chairman's Facebook page was updated with the status: "It's official. Starting this fall, I'll be strolling down Glory Road."

The allusion to Glory Road refers to the street on the University of Texas-El Paso campus that was renamed to honor the 1966 NCAA championship basketball team. "Glory Road" was also the title of Don Haskins' 2005 autobiography, as well as the the 2006 film it inspired, which told the story of coach Haskins' team at Texas Western (which has now become UTEP) that won the NCAA championship with a starting lineup of 5 black players. They defeated Adolph Rupp's Kentucky team, which had not yet become racially integrated.

The irony is that racial integration is diametrically opposed to most of The Chairman's philosophical beliefs. Most commentators believe that signing with El Paso was less influenced by any sort of symbolism, but instead by the easy access to the amenities of Ciudad Juarez, which has become the world's third leading producer of mass graves, behind Japan and Haiti, though Juarez leads the world in production of smaller mass graves (defined to be those with a capacity of between 5 and 30).

-Chairman

Caught in a Web(er)

I've been having a little e-mail discussion with Westy, C-Lauff, and Greg over our favorite basketball coach, Bruce Weber. Westy is a Bruce Weber apologist, who's basic position is that Weber isn't that bad. He'll get better players soon, and when he does, he'll magically be seen as a better coach. C-Lauff contends that Bruce is an unimaginative, inflexible coach who has had mediocre results, save for one almost-magical season in 2004-05. Even as I was declaring that we were the best team in basketball back in the winter of 2004, there were some signs:

"We're a little slow to adjust when teams change defenses, and will give away possessions at times when we decide not to move on offense."

And in the winter of 2005, I wrote about some of the problems that we had, as well, while I was defending out #6 national ranking:

"Whether we end up being a top 32 team or a Final Four team will be in our offense. At times, it looks like we're still trying to figure out how to play with each other. We'll throw the ball away and look awkward in our motion. Some of the guys still don't look natural in the motion."

And in the winter of 2007, my prognosis got a little worse, as Bruce wasn't able to reload very quickly. The offense has gotten progressively worse, and we've been terrible at adjusting to zone defenses with the Weber system. I really believe that a lot of the reason was that Bruce was adamant against using the high-low back in 2004 and 2005, because he was intent on having the final Bill Self funeral.

Now, back when we were looking for a replacement for Bill Self, I was on the Thad Matta bandwagon early. I grew up in Cincy, and had friends that went to Xavier, which has been an amazingly successful program, since the mid to late 80's, where the school kept winning, as it kept sending it's coaches on to BCS schools. This started with Pete Gillen (Virginia), then the late Skip Prosser (Wake Forest), Thad Matta (Ohio St.), Sean Miller (Arizona), and will probably continue with Chris Mack. Add on that Matta was from Hoopeston, IL, and you had the right fit, in my mind, at least. But for some reason, the speculation about Matta was quickly ended by the Illinois athletic department, and we quickly hired Bruce Weber. There was some thought that Matta wasn't wanting to leave Xavier. However, a year later, he ended up taking his show up the road to The Ohio State University. So the comparisons between Matta and Weber are natural ones.

With the latest Illini disappointment this season, C-Lauff questioned whether we were still on the Weber bandwagon, and while Westy defended the loss, suggesting that losing to Michigan was just a random event against a hot team, I differed a bit. This was my e-mail reply:

Well, I was never on the Bruce bandwagon. We had a period of détente, as we finished off the Dee and Deron era. But if you recall, I was pretty adamant that Weber was a significant step down from Self (particularly after watching him actually coach the first 2 years), and that Matta would have been the better choice (mainly because my buddy Mick knows hoops and was a Xavier alum and season ticket holder). And actually my opinion is that he’s the same coach that he’s always been (adequate – probably right in the middle of the Big Ten, behind Izzo, Ryan, Tubby, Matta, and now Painter). We’re still holding out judgment on Crean.

The point that I'm making is that Weber is a solid coach. If you're in the middle of the Big Ten, that probably puts you in the top 30 coaches nationally. But not an elite coach. And in basketball, coach = program. When you have a solid coach, you'll have a solid program. Don't get me wrong, but schools like Iowa would be envious. My contention was that Weber was a step down from Bill Self. Honestly, what percentage of the folks in Champaign would have preferred Weber to Self in 2004? 0.001%? Maybe? But the more interesting comparison was with Thad Matta, who Westy has never cared much for.

Westy may be somewhat in denial over this, but the strongest evidence for my case is the rankings right now. Matta and Self just happen to coach the #1 and #2 teams. With regard to Matta vs. Weber, both come in from mid-majors, Southern Illinois and Buter/Xavier, where they had success. Bruce started with a full cupboard, coming after Self leaves for Kansas. Matta takes a team that was ineligible for the postseason, coming off of 17-15 and 14-16 seasons after which they fired their coach, and goes 20-12, and just happens to hand the Illini their first loss in that ’04-’05 season. In ’05-’06, Matta starts his run by winning the Big Ten outright (over the Illini), and loses in the 2^nd round of the NCAA’s. And let’s just say that after that, we’ve seen a clear divergence from these two coaches. And a quick side note - back in ‘03-‘04, after we lost that tough, but exciting game against Duke in the Sweet 16, it was Matta’s Xavier team that gave Duke an even tougher game in the Elite 8.

My take on it is that Weber did a nice job in 2005, when we had the perfect storm on the perimeter. But, he botched our shot in ’06 by forcing his motion offense into a team that was better suited for the high-low setup that Self ran for a number of years (Rich McBride and Chester Frazier come in for Luther and Deron, and you don’t change your offense, even a little?). That team, with Auggie and Pruitt should have been working inside-out, and having Randle work the high post area, rather than drifting on the wing. One major issue that I saw, which I didn’t hear much about elsewhere, in 2006 was Dee Brown’s inability (whether it was an individual thing, or a system thing) to make good entry passes into the post. So many times, Dee would get the ball on the wing, and Auggie/Pruitt would have won position, but the pass inside was never made. I’m of the opinion that it’s an issue with Bruce’s system, because we saw similar issues from Chester, Meachem, and McCamey. It’s as though the guards are just told to give a token look inside, before reversing the motion, and that taking an additional dribble toward the baseline (to give a better entry pass angle) would not be tolerated.

And unless you have elite dribble penetration skills, that high 3-man weave doesn’t consistently generate direct looks. You’d think that having two bigs shooting over 50% from the field (with Auggie shooting 62.4% that year), you’d consider maybe going to an inside-out offense in 2005-06? Side note 2 - I believe that this cost Dee a chance to be a first rounder in the NBA, as he ended up shooting way too many long 3’s with the shot clock winding down, which killed his FG%.

I suspect that we saw some of those issues come into play down the road, particularly when we couldn’t turn Pruitt into the NBA sort of player that he could have been. He was a bit of a head case, but he got no help at all from his guards, and was hurt the lack of flexibility in the system. But if you’re a low-post big, and you see how the Illini play, would you like your chances to get to the NBA? The result is that we end up with the skinny, pick-and-pop bigs that we’ve been seeing, and there’s no incentive to really work the low post game, because of the lack of entry passes from the guards. I mean, look at this. Pruitt gets about as many shots as the other 4 players, when he’s shooting 57.2% from the field? This is what you get with Bruce’s offense. This is great when you have an all-star ensemble. But when you have guys like Trent Meachem and Jeffrey Jordan? You get debacles like this:

SCORING GP FG-FGA FG% 3FG-FGA 3PT% FT-FTA FT% PTS PTS/G

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pruitt, Shaun....... 34 163-285 .572 0-0 .000 101-179 .564 427 12.6

Meacham, Trent...... 34 109-265 .411 74-185 .400 53-71 .746 345 10.1

Randle, Brian....... 33 117-254 .461 8-39 .205 67-112 .598 309 9.4

McCamey, Demetri.... 35 100-275 .364 50-147 .340 37-59 .627 287 8.2

Brock, Calvin....... 35 100-220 .455 17-46 .370 41-62 .661 258 7.4

Frazier, Chester.... 34 57-169 .337 25-91 .275 27-52 .519 166 4.9

Alexander, Rodney... 31 49-126 .389 11-57 .193 34-48 .708 143 4.6

Tisdale, Mike....... 35 53-110 .482 2-12 .167 19-30 .633 127 3.6

Davis, Mike......... 34 36-82 .439 0-0 .000 15-32 .469 87 2.6

Cole, Bill.......... 12 11-21 .524 3-10 .300 3-7 .429 28 2.3

Holdren, Steve...... 14 5-19 .263 3-15 .200 4-7 .571 17 1.2

Jordan, Jeff........ 26 7-24 .292 1-3 .333 11-18 .611 26 1.0

Hicks, Chris........ 10 2-9 .222 2-9 .222 1-2 .500 7 0.7

Carlwell, Brian..... 3 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0.0

Semrau, Richard..... 8 0-1 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0.0

Total............... 35 809-1860 .435 196-614 .319 413-679 .608 2227 63.6

Opponents........... 35 720-1806 .399 215-641 .335 484-672 .720 2139 61.1

A major issue that we've run into, as well, is the lack of ball handling on this team. The one season that we looked good over the past 5 was in 2008-09, when we had Dimitri McCamey and Chester Frazier together in the same backcourt. It was the only time when we had more than one ball handler in our 3-guard, motion offense. Even this year, as talented as we are, with Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson, we don't have any true ball handlers, other than D-Mac. And our lack of execution on offense has reared it's ugly head, yet again. For the 6th consecutive season.

Overall, I'm of the opinion that Illinois should consistently be one of the top 2 or 3 Big Ten basketball programs. We have a ton of talent in our backyard, and we've shown that Champaign can be a destination for kids from other parts of the country (like The Colony, TX, or Alexandria, VA, for example). We were on our way there with Lon Kruger, until the Atlanta Hawks came calling. Bill Self took us there with Kruger's guys, and was about to do it with his guys, until UNC called Roy Williams for the second time, and then Kansas came calling. Weber was able to maintain things for the next three years, but by the time he hit year 5 (the first season with all of the players being his), we had that horrific 16-19 season. There's been a bit of a bounce back since then, but right now, it feels like Illini Basketball is in the wind.

Since we lost Self and didn't get Matta, we've seen Ohio St. emerge as either the #1 or #1a team in the Big 10, with 4 league titles in the last 6 seasons. Meanwhile, Kansas has won 7 consecutive Big 12 titles. And in post-season play, Ohio St. has had a NCAA runner-up, a NIT championship, and a Sweet 16. Kansas has a NCAA championship and two Elite 8 appearances. The Illini started off well, with a Sweet 16 and a NCAA runner-up, but have struggled since then, going 1-2 in the NCAA tournament in the 5 previous seasons. Westy defended this result, suggesting that it was simply recruiting issues that had hindered the Illini, and that these issues were in the past now that Jerrance Howard was in the fold. He also wondered how Matta would do with Weber's players.

First of all, it's pretty funny to me, to realize that the Illini basketball empire hinges on Jerrance, who was the guy at the end of the bench that the fans loved. So, there's that. With regard to what Matta does in-game? That seems to be an irrelevant question - I’ve got no idea what Matta would do with our team, but I do know that there’s no way that Bruce would have gotten Sullinger, even if he didn’t have Ohio St. ties. And when Matta has to go to the well and get a great white hope, he doesn't end up with Trent Meachem, but instead Aaron Craft (who I've become a big fan of, since he was the kid that punked Bruce Pearl's barbecue) or Jon Diebler, who always kill us. Plus, Matta allows things like Mark Titus' celebrity, whereas Weber makes the players shut down their Twitter accounts once practice starts in October.

I've had my complaints about Weber, particularly regarding his lack of aggression/creativity with in-bounds plays and the team's inability to adjust to different defenses. I think that he does well on the defensive end (though this year's team is infuriating to watch on D). Do I think that the Illini should fire Weber? Not really. I'm willing to wait on the latest crop of recruits, mainly because I dig the players that we've got as sophomores right now. But we really need to either a) increase Weber's flexibility with his system, or b) start recruiting the right fits, not necessarily the "best player available." We've had issues with low-post play and ball handling for years now. I'd argue that those are the two most important elements of college basketball (you can get away with mediocre outside shooting - just look at Michigan St. all these years).

In any case, we'll see how the Illini bounce pack in the post-season. All I can say is that I'm glad that we're up to 68 teams in the dance, so we're not sweating it out... I think.

-Chairman

Memento of Mardi Gras

1:27 PM, Wednesday.

The sun is out. It's as if a new season has arrived. The outside air is fresh. Vibrant and alive. A number of puddles lie dying in the streets, slowly losing their battle against the sun and the wind. There is optimism in the air, a hope of better days ahead.

The hope of these better things comes with a price - a sacrifice. Actually, 40 days and 40 nights of sacrifice, which represent the introspection, the fight against temptation, and surrender of one's will to the surrounding world. Actually, it's 46 days. But who's counting?

A breath is drawn in. An orange glow slightly precedes the quiet sound of burning. A breath of smokes leaves. A second later, ashes fall from the balcony down to the sidewalk below. No one was there to mourn for the sidewalk. And the sidewalk had nothing to give, other than it's constant presence, a sacrifice in it's own utilitarian way. Minutes later, a footstep spreads the ashes across the sidewalk. It is finished.

6:00 AM, Wednesday.

The rain started. A light, methodical rain, that grew, building upon itself. Over the course of a few minutes, the light, methodical rain had crescendoed into the aggressive rain that inflicts little droplets of pain against the skin. And the aggressive rain continued into the morning. It's as though the gods had drawn their fury against the notion that 40 days of reverence was a burden, that a period of revelry was needed to counteract devotion. The rains came. The rains washed away the stain and stench of the drunkenness, the idolatry, the lust, and the gluttony that had permeated the preceding nights.

A breath is exhaled. The bed creaks. The sound of snoring rumbles throughout the room.

7:00 AM, Tuesday.

The ebb and flow of the beats and rhythms and voices and bodies works in tandem with the darkness. Trances. Hypnosis. And in one moment, everything changes.

Light.

Whereas the general flow of life moves from darkness to light, the suddenness with which this light comes offers an instantaneous glimpse into one's soul. Questions arise, about life, meaning, and how one has gotten to this state.

But no answers are to be found.

The mob begins it's movement down the street to join with another mob, to create a, well, bigger mob. But this mob possesses no viciousness, only revelry. And the mob witnesses another, more organized mob. Black men and women march through the street, throwing coconuts, among other things, at the celebrating mob. And there was much rejoicing. Or so we are told.

2:30 AM, Tuesday.

A moment is shared in the bathroom. Celebration. Excitement. Frenzy. Debauchery. Bodies tense and struggle. Shortened breaths become brief gasps. And moments later, the tension is released.

This was no celebration. This was a sacrifice.

And when the sacrifice was over, not a word was spoken. The only feeling was the trance that came with the facade of celebration.

10:00 PM, Monday.

A look around reveals solitude. A quiet lull, the silence at the eye the storm offering a reprieve from all that has come before, and all that will follow. And in a moment, the solitude is shattered. The feeling of forced celebration permeates the room. This was celebration, not earned, but rather for the sake of celebration. On further introspection, this was celebration as a ritual.

But it was a ritual that was well disguised, avoiding detection by all but the most observant. Celebration begat excitement, and excitement begat frenzy, and frenzy begat debauchery. But debauchery was there before all of it, underlying everything that was done. The debauchery was what this was really all about. Everything else was simply a facade. Meaning was lost, and probably had been lost for as long as one could remember.

Or at least for the last 5 days.

6:30 AM, Sunday.

The day of the Lord. The reason why the Lenten season begins 46 days prior to Easter. The 6 Sundays don't count as sacrifice. They were already spoken for. The other 40 days were the sacrifice. But it seemed that this was a technicality based on an old calendar.

A brief internal debate ensues. The chapel? Or sloth? This was the third day of celebration. The laziest of the deadly sins winnowed itself into the forefront of the mind.

No sacrifices, yet. Lent has yet to begin. There was still celebration to be had.

A breath is exhaled. The bed creaks. The sound of snoring rumbles throughout the room.

1:30 PM, Saturday.

There is a moment of confusion. Two strangers meet again. But neither person immediately knows who belongs, and who is the stranger. Pleasantries are exchanged. The stranger shuffles off into the day.

1:30 AM, Saturday.

Two strangers meet. A traveler on a pilgrimage from a far-away land. A resident of the destination, on the way home. Pleasantries are exchanged. Rapport is built. The traveler and the resident shuffle off from the oasis, together into the night.

11:00 PM, Friday.

Sparks of excitement dance in the air. Thousands of wondrously dressed bodies crowd the streets, and people spill into the buildings. A street party. Not just a block party. But a party that starts at Canal, and heading for about a mile into the night. The energy is contagious. Young and old alike are invigorated. Smiles and laughter are everywhere.

The gilded classes are above, looking down at the proletariat, though in actuality not much separates the two. Words are exchanged. Offers are made. A show. A kiss. Payment is given, in the form of cheap, but shiny, baubles. And smiles from those who weren't involved in the transaction spread across the streets.

5:30 AM, Friday.

Keys fumble. But the locks eventually yield. A feeling of excited exhaustion morphs into simply exhaustion. A sense of satisfaction joins with the exhaustion, while steps are heard moving upward, into the night. The door opens and closes. The only sound left is that of clothing hitting the floor.

A breath is exhaled. The bed creaks. The sound of snoring rumbles throughout the room.

10:30 PM, Thursday.

The anticipation of the event has brought expectations so high that anything less than perfection would be a let down. A decision for moderation in celebration is made. The first set of real parades were exciting. Majestic floats: men in flowing robes, women with spectacular outfits, all dancing and giving candy and beads to the masses. But this was a time for moderation, meant to be a brief reprieve prior to the sacrifices of Lent.

A sip of scotch is swallowed.

A breath is drawn in. An orange glow slightly precedes the quiet sound of burning. A breath of smokes leaves. A second later, ashes fall from the balcony down to the sidewalk below.