Update - NBA Ref

I'm reconsidering my thoughts on the ref's potential impact on the game. Bill Simmons makes an interesting point when he talks about how refs can much more relatively easily the over/under. Systematically calling more fouls can lead to more points. So, if you call more fouls evenly, then you've got a legit edge in the over bet. Hadn't considered the over/under when they mentioned that a ref was fixing games. And upon further review, perhaps the easiest way to adjust scoring is with technical fouls, actually. Put up an extra T twice a game, both on the same team, and you just swung the spread by about 1.5 points. And I forgot about the human factor.

Imagine this scenario - Donaghy's doing a Knicks/Bulls game and has the orders to make sure that the Knicks cover the 5.5 points that they're getting, and that the teams should score over 184.5 points. Knicks go into halftime down 7. The refs go into their locker room, and start discussing the game. Depending on how charismatic he is, Donaghy could be able to influence the others.

"Man, we've gotta get control down there - Wallace is getting really reach happy down there."
"Really? I hadn't noticed."
"Yeah, he and Curry are getting chippy."
"Yeah? I'll take an extra peek in there. We'll get things settled down early in the quarter."

And sure enough, the refs go out there, and see the hand fighting and positioning battles a little differently than they did in the first half. Wallace gets a couple fouls, and gets T'd up. Skiles goes nuts and gets T'd up, as well. Donaghy didn't even make the technical foul calls. Wallace has to head to the bench. Net effect - Knicks score more. Total points increase. But the Bulls are the better team, and manage to squeeze out a 97-92 win. Everyone goes home thinking about how well Gordon played down the stretch or how David Lee needs more playing time. They don't notice that the teams combined for 53 points in the 3rd or how the Knicks turned a 7 point deficit into a 2 point lead by the end of the quarter, both of which would likely be statistical aberrations.

I don't know - what I said about how referee crews get together to talk about things to make sure that they get the right call is true. But if a crooked ref is an assertive, confident, influential person, then maybe what he says (or even does) becomes influential. I'm still thinking that it's hard to change the outcome of a game, but if you have the perfect storm, then you can definitely shift the tides over time, like I had originally thought.

-Chairman