Call it. The Season is Over.
So, I think that we have the best basketball team in the country. This squad is unflappable. We get done blowing out Gonzaga and Wake Forest, and then we turn around and go down to Arkansas and were never threatened. The Arkansas game was the closest, but watching the game, you saw that Arkansas had no chance against the us in the halfcourt. They couldn't score. As long as we stopped giving them points off of turnovers or defensive lapses, they wouldn't be able to close the gap. I love how Weber never used a timeout, but let the team struggle through. It was our first character test, and I thought that we passed with flying colors. Only complaint? Free throw shooting. We make those free throws, and the lead is never below 10.
You watch the wings, and they are can run with anyone. But everyone knew that. What's interesting is when you see the Illini in the halfcourt. It's scary, sometimes. I don't know if any team in the country can play man-to-man on us. Gonzaga tried it for 4 minutes, and got down by 10. About the same was true for Wake. Arkansas was able to hang out longer in man. Of course, we've also learned to play against zone, too. Wake and Gonzaga switched over, and the leads were just extended because we shot them out of the gym.
You absolutely need three wing stoppers, someone who can shut down the low block, and a big man that can extend on the wing. If you don't have 3 wings who can ball deny and stop penetrate, you'll see either Deron Williams, Dee Brown, or Luther Head go off for easy buckets, either for themselves, or for whoever is open after someone doubles. Then you tack on Rich McBride who can bust zones - if he gets his feet set, he's deadly from up to 22. If you're missing the bigs, you'll either end up with James Augustine in a low block iso, Nick Smith or Jack Ingram open from 16, or a a stiff on Roger Powell on the wing. Most importantly, the entire team has this incredibly unselfish attitude, but at the same time is never gun-shy.
But, even more impressive is this squad on D. The first thing that you notice is that this team hustles - they're always on the floor. Dee wrecks havoc on teams that are just a little sloppy with their passes. Deron is an excellent on the ball defender against bigger guards, and Luther actually plays pretty big - going high for rebounds, and challenging shots. Powell is tough and plays like he's 6'9", not 6'6", and the rotation of Auggie, Nick, and Ingram is solid against other teams bigs. This squad doesn't need to play zone, and rotates well enough so that they can double with somewhat reckless abandon. They'll use a guard and a big to double the high screens, chasing people back to halfcourt. They'll double the post hard, either high or low. The idea is that they make teams make more passes because 1) they're ball hawks and can steal sloppy passes, and 2) it covers up the lack of physical dominance in the block. If you watch a possession in the half court, they make the other team work to get shots.
Teams like this go deep in the tourney, and have a really good shot at winning it all. I heard someone on ESPN describe us as being similar to the old Arizona squads with Mike Bibby and Miles Simon. I can sort of see it, but those Arizona teams didn't defend. This Illini teams starts on defense, and then runs you into the ground. This is a squad that reminds me of the old early 90's UNLV squad - run and gun on offense, but able to play halfcourt, but more importantly, shut down D. The UNLV squads liked the matchup zones a little more, whereas, we run something similar, but more of a doubling/switching man.
Anyway, it wouldn't surprise me to see us be favored for every game from here on out. Something like 30-3 overall, 14-2 in the Big Ten, and Big Ten tourney champs, before going into the tourney is actually reasonable. This gets us a #1 seed, and we'll be sent to Indy for 1st and 2nd rounds, Chicago for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, before going to St. Louis for the Final 4. Things just seem to line up well. The Big Ten tourney is in Chicago, and we play well in Indy, Chicago, and St. Louis. I think that Vegas had us at 7-1 before the season. I'm guessing that we're down to 4-1 by now.
So what can stop us? We have problems at time with Deron and McBride playing a little too much D with their hands and arms, instead of their feet. They can get into foul trouble. Luther also has lapses on D, but he's more of a gambler, so he can be caught out of position. We also have lapses from Auggie and Nick on D, where they give some silly fouls. We're only really 8 deep right now - but I think that Shaun Pruitt, Warren Carter, and Brian Randle can step in. Pruitt seems to be a true low block player, with a bit of an attitude down there. Randle is a solid wing player, who can play D. And Warren is an OK scorer, and can board and block shots. The shooting is a little up in the air with these guys, but they're there for depth.
We're a little slow to adjust when teams change their defenses, and will give away possessions at times when we decided not to move on offense. On defense, my biggest fear is that we run into two strong post scorers both of whom who can pass out of the double. We do a good job rotating on the wing and covering shooters, but we haven't gone up against a team that runs multiple post threats. Wouldn't it be ironic if someone tried to use that old Bill Self high-low on us? I don't know that we wouldn't be able to stop it, but that's something that we haven't seen, yet. Wake only had 1 real post presence. Ditto for Gonzaga. Teams that could pose problems? UConn, maybe, with Villenueva and Boone in the block and some talent on the wings. Georgia Tech who has the three top notch guards and some size down low. I don't know. But it'll be interesting to see how this one pans out. The best part? Floor seats to see it all happen
-Chairman
