Wait 'til Later This Year

It was scary how good USC looked. First, on defense, they were incredibly fast to the outside. As I recall, we only had a single good outside option play, where we got a nice little chip block on the end, and Rashard Mendenhall took it about 25 yards. But other than that, they killed us to the outside. Really, the only complaint that I had about them was that they were passing too much early in the game. Booty didn't look good early on, and was not accurate with the ball. They were running the ball at will, but still throwing on 1st and 2nd down in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. That actually gave us a chance to come back in the 3rd quarter, but it wasn't enough.

In a game where we needed the bounces and calls to go our way, we had them go the other way in droves:

-The non-fumble to open up the game (as well as the non-challenge)
-The McKnight "Immaculate Reception" sort of play on their first scoring drive
-USC hitting a trick play to make it 14-0
-A missed chip shot figgie

Of course, our defense got some traction, and started competing legitimately (thanks largely to USC passing too much). You could've made the argument that it could've easily been something like USC 14, Illinois 10 at halftime, but instead, it was 21-0. But even in the 3rd quarter, we looked alright. We had 2 big plays go our way in a very nice Mendenhall 79-yard TD run to make it 21-10. Then we got our stop, and got another big Mendenhall play, a 55-yard play off of a short dump off pass. Our defense was starting to slow down the run, and we were getting some more pressure on Booty. Our offense had seemed to get things figured out. Then, we threw a completion deep into USC territory, which was followed immediately by:

-The Willis fumble going toward the endzone to keep it from going to 21-17

This was brutal. This was the reverse of the "hometown boy stars in underdog role" story. Along with the early Kyle Hudson dropped pass, this was the "hometown kids come up short" story, which isn't nearly as sexy. But, our defense was still competing, so if we could have gotten another stop, we were still in business. Instead:

-The lateral that McKnight picked up and ran 65 yards (as well as the bad challenge)

That made it 28-10 with a lot of time left to go, but to put the nail in the coffin, Juice overthrew Cumberland, and got picked, which led to USC scoring to make it 35-10, effectively ending the game. Looking at it honestly, we got 2 big plays, and had 6 go against us. If things balance out, we get the 2 big ones, and only have 4 go against us, we're looking at something like 28-20, with us starting a drive with about 4 minutes left in the 3rd. We're still behind, but we're competing. So, we ran into a superior team that got a couple more bounces than we did. That's a recipe for a blowout.

Now, some folks had issue with the play call on the last interception. I don't.

We got exactly what we wanted. Our biggest receiver (a Walter Young type guy) 1-on-1 to the outside. We actually got a shot with that same matchup in the 2nd quarter and took a shot. On the earlier play, we say that Harris (the CB) was actually outrunning Cumberland on the play, blanketing him. That play ended in an incompletion. Cumberland had about 6" on Harris, so the best throw there is a high, jump-ball sort of throw. Conversely, since Harris was playing ahead of Cumberland, a slight underthrow would been great, as well. So, on a play where Juice had to go with either the high jump-ball, or the underthrow, he zips a laser that's overthrown, and gets picked.

That said, I like Juice a lot. What I described above is something that you only see good QB's do. Right now, Juice is probably still under orders to throw the ball away at the first sign of trouble. I'm guessing that by design, he has 2 downfield routes that he's looking at, as well as a safety valve. He has improved his passing tremendously, but still needs to add to his repertoire. He has looked much better this year on the little swing passes, and some of the short passes across the middle. You still want to work receivers in front of him, rather than have him make reads across the entire field. He is still very much a work in progress.

You saw some issues with height. He's listed at 6'2", which, coincidentally, is the shortest that many NFL teams will allow their QB's to be. Rumor has it that he's a hair under 6'1". In the opening quarter, there were 2 throws tipped at the line, the 2nd of which was picked on the play immediately preceding the flea flicker that made it 14-0.

But here's the thing. He just finished his sophomore year. Right now, he's ahead of where Dennis Dixon, Troy Smith, and most college run/throw QB's not named McNabb, Vick, or Tebow were after their sophomore years. QB's take time to mature. You see quantum leaps from a lot of guys. Dixon looked shaky until this year. Andre Woodson was shaky until his junior season. Troy Smith really became an excellent QB after his junior year. Donovan McNabb was ahead of Juice, but even he was under 55% in his 2nd and 3rd years starting, before having a great senior season.

So, I think that things look rosy for the Illini, just not at this moment. Next year, we get more experience out of Benn/Cumberland as WR's, as well as Brian Gamble, who switched over from the defensive side of the ball. We'll have to replace some of the interior linemen, including our all-Amerian, Martin O'Donnell. On the defensive side, we'll lose a little more, notably J Leman, Antonio Steele, and Kevin Mitchell. We'll see how guys like Josh Brent and Martez Wilson fill in on the defensive line, and we'll see who steps up to fill the role that Leman played for us the last few years. Best guess is Britt Miller will do very well in the LB, and that Will Davis will have a good year on the line.

The biggest question is whether Mendenhall will be back next year. I think that Mendenhall showed the burst, as well as the toughness to go on the 1st day in the draft. I'm guessing that he'll work out for teams, and get evaluated. If he's a 1st rounder, he pretty much has to go pro. From what's out there, the consensus top 3 RB's are Darren McFadden, Ray Rice, and Felix Jones. Mendenhall may be able to creep in there, maybe even up to #2, which would put him in the mid/late 1st round. But if he projects out as a mid-2nd round pick, that's a big difference in guaranteed money than a mid-1st round. That likely means that he'll be back next year as a preseason Heisman and Doak Walker candidate, and in line to be a top 20 pick next year, and really cash in. Of course, even without Rashard Mendenhall, we still have Walter Mendenhall, who has shown a some toughness (though not the speed) to get a few carries. And Daniel "Shawshank" Dufrene has busted a few long ones, including the non-fumble early on against Ohio St.

In any case, early guess is that we'll be in the top 10-15 to start out the season. After that, it's up to how we perform on the field. I think that another bowl game will happen, but the question is what sort of bowl we'll be going to.

-Chairman