The Rise of the American Hoops Empire

So is the Pacific Northwest becoming a hoops haven? If so, I have to confess that I wouldn't have thunk it. Of course, with Kevin Durant leading the professional basketball resurgence with the Sonics... wait. Nevermind... Of course, with Greg Oden... dangit. One more time. Of course, with Brandon Roy leading the professional basketball resurgence in Portland, this shouldn't be that surprising. There. Much better.

A while back I wrote about the state of the American hoops scene. The discussion was about 13-year old phenom Allonzo Trier, a kid out of Seattle. And when I was reading TrueHoop, I recently came across the story of 14-year old Nigel Williams-Goss, a kid out of Oregon who has been described as the most-acclaimed junior-high basketball player in Oregon history. And the big deal is that he's going to Findlay Prep in Vegas, the mythical high-school national champion last year, a basketball factory, similar in flavor to the Bolletteri Tennis Academy, where kids live on site, have tutors for class, and play a lot of basketball.

Whereas my initial reaction to hearing about Allonzo Trier was a "expect the worst, but hope for the best," sort of thing, my reaction to Nigel Williams-Goss is a much higher level of comfort. There are some distinct differences between the two. Trier became a star on the AAU scene, mainly because he hadn't hit junior-high, yet. He was 13, but only in 6th grade - probably had a birthday just after the cut-off point (which would probably raise the collective Freakonomics eyebrow), and was held back a year in school. The kid was diagnosed as being dyslexic. And he's being raised by only his mother (never met his dad) and the host of AAU coaches/power-brokers. Though, in fairness, the Times Magazine article did portray her as a very devoted mother, who was willing to help him hone his craft. And perhaps most importantly, Trier is only 5'5", 110 points, which means that he's small, though apparently his father was 6'3", so he may grow... but there's no guarantee.

On the flip side, Williams-Goss is a straight-A student who speaks 2 languages. And the kid's already 6'2" and 165 pounds. This probably means that instead of saying that he has a "high basketball IQ," you can just say that he has a high IQ. Mom and Dad are together, and they're intent on raising him well, to the point that they're moving to Las Vegas so that they will stay together as a family. He's also dominating the AAU scene, holding his own playing with elite college-bound 17-year olds last year, and dominating the competition on an under-16 team this year. Money quote from the article from the director of a national invite-only all-star camp:

“Nigel is one of the kids who struck us as a unique player and person. We felt he was special in terms of being coachable and wanting to be good. He was a refreshing change from a lot of kids you see these days who have an entitlement mentality. We noticed he’s well-rounded, with interests other than basketball. For instance, he is fluent in Chinese. And we were really impressed with his ability..."

What's interesting to me was that the description was about his personality and demeanor. It was only then that the discussion of his basketball talent began. This alone suggests that this kid's a little different. Coachable. Not "entitled." And when he describes himself, Williams-Goss says,

“Most young basketball players want to get to the NBA. I want to star in the NBA. I’ve always been one to want to be above the competition, to be the best every time I step onto the floor. When I’m in the NBA, I want to be the best, too... Ever since I started playing, I’ve played against older kids. When I was in second grade, I was playing against fourth- and fifth-graders. I play up to get better. I never want to stay at my level. It’s helped my game a lot.

This suggests that there's a desire and a drive to improve. So how will Findlay Prep work out? Somewhat surprisingly, even to myself, I think that it will work out well. When you're a part of this sort of machine (like Oak Hill Academy), you are surrounded with hoops, and from all accounts, it's done right. It's not like the wild west version that you see from the AAU folks. These kids are going to get their high school education, and odds are that they'll have better diets, training, and coaching (not to mention better competition in practice and in games) than kids in normal school. Kids going to school in a normal setting will have structured hoops in high school for 3-4 months, and then be left to roam in AAU/summer league settings. On the other hand, I have a suspicion that over at Findlay prep, there will be more structure yeah-round, though it sounds like AAU and summer camps are still in the picture. But I'm guessing that the Monday-Friday structure will be helpful.

Instinctively, I think that folks balk when they hear about the Findlay Prep/Oak Hill Academy sort of basketball factories. But, is this really much different than a school for the arts? Or any other magnet school? I'm assuming that the academics will be there, and I'm sure that these prep schools will dial in on getting these kids qualified for college (meeting coursework requirements, SAT/ACT test preps, etc.), and these kids will probably get more freedom as ball players in college than they did in high school, which makes them even more coveted on the recruiting trails.

And in fact, I'm sort of hoping that we see more of these legit, well-run prep schools emerge - not the sham academies where they give kids course credit, in return for a check, but true academies that help the elite improve, while providing them with adequate education and life training. This stands in contrast to kids in mediocre schools, not giving a crap about classes, and living in a world where they are celebrities and go through adolescence unchecked. And even if you keep the focus strictly on basketball, I think that this model results in better skill development, which leads to a better product on the floor, which is what we really look for as fans.

The odds of either Trier or Williams-Goss making an NBA All-Star game are long (at least 500-1, I'd imagine. And I still hope that Allonzo Trier succeeds and makes the big-time. But if I was a betting man (and I am), I'd be more likely to put a buck on Nigel Williams-Goss (though I don't know if there are bookmakers who run this sort of action).

-Chairman