Sunday, January 22, 2006

Who the Hell was Robert Frost, Anyway?

I'm sick of the road less traveled. You never meet any interesting people.

I was having a conversation with Kubla Curran a few weeks back. And we came to the same conclusion. And that was that we have not paid enough attention to things in life where at first glance there doesn't seem to be much depth, but upon further examination, there are all sorts of implications that just don't seem apparent.

For example, let's look at poker. Let's say that you're holding a pair of Queens in the hole. The board comes up King, 10, 7, 3, 2, with no flush draws possible. You've bet at the pot twice with two decent sized bets, and you've been called twice by a solid player. Your opponent checks to you after 5th street. You're pondering another bet. On the surface, there's nothing wrong with another bet here. You've got a good chance at the best hand. Your opponent was probably sitting on somehting like 8-9 and was hoping for a hit. But it probably missed. So it wouldn't hurt to bet, would it? If you take a step back, and look at it from a different perspective, you may have a very different thought, though.

If you bet here, what are the odds that your opponent calls? Most likely small. They'll only call if they have a mid-sized king. They'll either fold with a weak hand, or raise with a big King, 2 pair, or a set. So, if you bet, your opponent will likely either fold (which means that you could have gotten to the same result by just checking, and also forcing your opponent to show their cards) or raise (upon which you will likely end up folding). And even if they call, if they're actually a solid player, you're probably doomed. If you bet, things will never improve. It can only get worse. So, you should check. Anything else is pretty much a terrible play.

So what does that have to do with anything? I'm wondering about the implications of the things that I do with myself now. The everyday, trivial things that I don't think twice about seem to be conspiring against me. I need to get some things cleaned up. It's interesting. I don't think about it a lot, but when I step back, I realize that the everyday relationships that I am in with people are a very volatile system. The relationships that I put time into will inevitably damage other relationships, which do not get as much attention. And the influences that each relationship has on me will compound the situation even further. For example, if I hang out with my friend who is really big into movies, I'll probably end up going out to a bunch of movies. And as a result, I not only will spend less time with my friends who are into basketball, but I'll also have more of my focus on movies, rather than basketball. This is particularly troubling if you realize that the different people with whom you are friends are vastly different in demeanor, preferences, and beliefs.

Every choice that we make has consequences. It's just that some of them are subtle, and can go unnoticed, unless you know that you're looking for it.

-Chairman

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

So last week I played in my first hold 'em poker tourney ($5). It was just to learn, really. Anyway, on one hand fairly early in the game I had Ace, King in the pocket. Then there was a King on the flop. One guy put a decent bet down and so I folded.

I thought about it afterward and started to wonder if that was a bad move...

Chairman said...

Well, it all depends on what you think the other guy is doing. 98% of the time, you should think that you're ahead (unless they indicated that they had a big pocket pair prior to the flop, and the board was like K-Q-J or something that would make you think that they hit their set. But otherwise, when you have A-K, and you see king high on the flop, you raise (or call, if you think that you can get more money out of them).

-Chairman