Friday, January 06, 2006

Who Will Protect This House?

We will, we will.

We have a new intro before our basketball games. It adds the familiar Under Armour chant to what we had last year with Ali screaming "The Champ is here!"

My statements about this team still stand. At the start of the season, I figured on a Sweet 16 team. After our non-conference run, I was thinking Elite 8, maybe Final Four. And now, after we held serve against Michigan St.? No changes. Still Elite 8, maybe Final Four. We didn't find out anything new on the positive side, really.

Our defense is good. But we already knew that. You've seen me harp on this before. No one has cracked 65 on us. And Michigan St., who normally scores in the mid 80's was held to 50. Yikes. We force teams to do two things that most teams don't do well. One, they need to pass well at all 5 spots. You can't have some guy who can't make an effective pass, otherwise, we recover too quickly, and you have to work again. Very few teams can do that well. We saw that Michigan St. just couldn't take advantage the situations where they had us out of position. If you can't move the ball smoothly, forget about it. And if they happen to get a look going toward the hole, you may have Auggie flying at you to block your shot. The second thing, is that we force teams to make outside shots. Our defense is effective because the only open shots that we give up tend to be from outside. If you can't make open 3's on us, forget about it. Michigan St. had their share of open shots from the outside. They just didn't hit any of them, because they're not good shooters (just like the last 4 years, at least). We didn't give the ball away, so they didn't have transition opportunities. And we get back so well off of our own misses, than the few transition attempts they had got challenged. Interestingly, I think that teams that try to slow it down on us are doomed. Teams that waste 15 seconds on offense will only have 20 seconds to get a shot on us. We're so good that it's often on the third or fourth cycle through before you get a look on us. And 20 seconds just isn't enough time when you have to reset.

What was nice to find out is that we can still do this to a really athletic, talented team. I'm not sure if we can do this to a team that's as athletic as Michigan St. and really smart on the floor. And I hope that we don't have to find out.

Where this game actually gave me some questions was the holes that we had on offense.

Jamar Smith was taken out of the game, entirely, by Drew Neitzel. Up until this point, we hadn't faced a team that was able to have enough defenders to put someone legitimately pesky on Jamar. Most teams only have one real defender, and he would go on Dee. Michigan St. had the ability to put Shannon Brown on Dee (former HS teammates, no relation), and have Neitzel chase Jamar around the court. End result? Jamar only got one shot, a missed (though it looked on-line) three pointer. The thing is, if he can't get it going on offense, he's not good enough of a defender to keep in there against stronger players (like Michigan St. had). For the first time that I can really remember, Jamar was a non-factor when we actually needed his offense.

Auggie lost his confidence in the post. In the first half, he was fighting for position and getting the ball in great position. Problem is, he went off and was called for 4 travels early on (anyone who was watching on TV - were these legit calls?), and was clearly frustrated (and close to getting T'eed up). In the second half, he was content to be a high screener, rather than really fight in the post. In fact, none of our bigs really demanded the ball consistently. Pruitt did on a couple occasions, but it wasn't consistent throughout the game, and Marcus Arnold was a zero factor that game (and looked like he may have been a little gimpy). And oddly enough, Warren Carter only got one shot off. We just had nothing inside.

I was actually OK with how Rich played. He was in the flow of the offense, and even created his own shot once (nice little head fake outside, 2 dribbles toward the free throw line, buried a 18 footer). Where I am very concerned is with Randle. His range stops at 14 feet. Maybe. He's got no confidence in his shot right now. He's not taking makeable shots, and when he is forced to shoot (shot clock running down), he just chucks it up there with a resigned look on his face. Not good. His buckets need to come by breaking down defenders off the dribble. Which he can do to most 3's. But not with teams that run a smaller man at him. I haven't seen him work the post, but that may be where he needs to work to get some points.

Here's the deal. Teams that only have one scorer don't win championships. They can scare the daylights out of teams, but it's hard to win 4 consecutive games against good teams with only once scorer. Dee may be able to average 12 out of 22 per game over a season, but it's hard to do it 4 games in a row. There's bound to be one off game in there. If if no one else is used to coming up big, you'll end up with a tough loss. And we know that. We'll learn from this game. I think that we'll find more ways to get Jamar open. And we'll get to the point where our bigs will keep fighting for position (and get the ball). And Randle can't really keep shooting this badly (can he?). The question is always do the other teams learn to play us, or do we identify our weaknesses before that happens?

My prediction still stands. This team will have a legit shot to make a run in March. We're not as talented or dominant as last year, but we may be just as effective. Up next? At Iowa. Always a tough game, but we should be better. We'll see.

-Chairman

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

were these legit calls?
Yep, he traveled. He would either do a hop or switch pivot feet. I'm sure the NBA scouts in attendance were cringing.

Our defense is effective because the only open shots that we give up tend to be from outside. If you can't make open 3's on us, forget about it. Michigan St. had their share of open shots from the outside. They just didn't hit any of them, because they're not good shooters...
I thought I'd disagree slightly. I think the key is not just forcing the other team to shoot outside jumpers, but knowing who on the other team to force to do that. Notice who we were rotating off of. Always Neitzel. He had several open looks. Ager only had 1 that I remember (one of the times Randle wasn't on him, and he made it) and Brown only had a couple. I like that we are smart enough on D to focus on who we need to. MSU actually are pretty good shooters; in fact, near the top of the Big 10 in 3 pt.% if you check it out on Big Ten Wonk's site.

Keep up the analysis, though. It's always nice to hear firsthand from someone who was at the game.

Chairman said...

I agree that there's some discretion to who you roll off of, but really that's limited. We weren't explicitly rolling off of Neitzel, were we? We were doubling with a forward, kept the man on the nearest prass, and played shell game (2 on 3) against the rest of the team. It's not like we were explicitly not doubling in situations, were we?

As far as Michigan St. shooting, Shannon Brown is shooting 43% from 3 this year, but is more like a 35% career shooter - mediocre, really. He took seven 3's against us, and made 3 of them, actually better than the 3 or 9 he got from inside the arc. Ager is about 38% career. Which suggests that they're alright.

But you know as well as anyone else that there's a difference between 3's under pressure, when you can't get anything else, and when you're getting easy looks at 3's when you're killing your opponents. Some games, you just watch, and you see a team that would be in the game, or even winning, if they could just shoot. And I swear that every time that I see Michigan St., that's what I think. For a team that's as good as Michigan St., I'd expect a truly "good" shooter to be in the mid-40's from 3.

And for the record, Drew Neitzel is also about 38% career from 3, and is actually shooting 44% from 3 this year, second only to Paul Davis, who is 4 of 6 this year from outside.

Anonymous said...

Question:

What do you call a woman who's getting married to a McDonald's corporation family heir?

Rich McBride.

RG, you make a good point about teams with one scorer. Last year, the Illini essentially had three NBA guards, which led to things like a 37-2 record, making up 15 points on AZ in the final 4 minutes of a pressure-packed game, and Rick Pitino calling them "the best attack offense in college basketball." This year, as of right now, we only have one scorer -- Dee -- and obviously we can't expect him to go out and score 25 (or 34) every night.

In the MSU game, our bigs really struggled with their offense close to the basket. Say what you will about our young guards and small forwards regarding their scoring, I think our best hope is for one or two of the bigs to step up and become solid scorers inside along with Auggie. (BTW, yeah, I was surprised by Auggie's travels. That's not like him -- he'll adjust.)

I didn't see the Iowa game today, but the result doesn't come as a surprise (road loss to a decent team, less than 48 hours after an emotional win). The Big 10 is tough this year and nobody will escape the schedule unscathed. The key will be to "protect the house" and when going on the road, make sure you punch the "punching bags." Do that and steal one big win on the road and you'll probably win the Big 10 regular season and at least a #3 seed. Do that and win the Big 10 tourney, then you might be looking at a #1 or #2 seed.

Given the depth in the conference this season, my guess is that whoever wins the Big 10 regular season title will NOT win the Big 10 tourney -- and perhaps yet a 3rd team from the conference will ultimately have the best NCAA tourney run. We'll see.