Perpetual Motion

I think that I owe you guys my annual Illini review. It's been different for me this year, since I actually gave up my season tickets, in preparation of my joining the real world. As a result, my perspectives on the Illini come from my couch and TV. Although in fairness, I do get HD, so the view isn't bad. Of course, it isn't quite like sitting in the first row behind the Illini bench. I don't really get to see the physical nature of the game, but I get to see a bigger picture on TV. I also don't like to really write about the Illini until I get a feel for the team, and I just had not watched enough to really have much to say until today's game. So, think of this is a combo for this year and next year, since many of the key players will be back next year.

Some things stand out about this team. First, it's a much truer motion offense that we're running. Last year, we didn't have the ball handlers, particularly early in the season when Dimitri hadn't won heavy minutes, and we would go out there with Chester, Trent, and Calvin as our guards, and Randle and Pruitt as our bigs. You can't run a 5-man motion offense with only 1.5 ball handlers, especially if your bigs can't pass on the perimeter, which neither Randle or Pruitt could really do. The telling statistic is that we've got 433 assists for our 617 field goals, (about a rate of 70%). This compares favorably to our 04-05 team (about 67%), which shared the ball marvelously, and is well above our team last year, who had assists on only 53% of their field goals, and openly disliked each other on the court. We move the rock, and a big part of that is having better ball handlers out there.

Last year, I commented that we'd be at our best once Dimitri emerged as a clear starter. And Dimitri is clearly the best perimeter offensive player on this team. He's still a bit of a streak shooter, but his bread and butter is his penetration. At this stage, he's a better penetrator than Deron was (and remember, I was a huge D-Will fan from day 1). Dimitri can pull out some fancy dribbling in traffic, has a great hesitation dribble, and has an uncanny ability to avoid defenders who are in position to take charges. I like this guy. Last year, I commented that I wasn't sure about his court vision. I'm now convinced. This guy can see passes, and can make some stunning passes from the perimeter. But where he really shines is being a big time scorer. He may put up scoring numbers the next couple years that we haven't seen from a guard since the Kiwane Garris days. I think that he's strong and skilled enough to play at the next level. I don't know if his pure athleticism will allow him to be a lead guard like Deron in the League, but he's got a chance.

Similar to my thoughts on Dimitri last year, I thought that this year's team would be at it's best once Alex Legion won minutes from Trent. And I still think that's true. However, Trent has improved noticeably this year. He's no longer a liability when he has to dribble, and is even creating some opportunities with his penetration. Legion has won the minutes as the 4th guard on this team, at the expense of Jeffrey Jordan. This is good for the Illini, overall, as the ceiling on Legion is much higher. In any case, I'm very comfortable with the ball handling with Chester and Dimitri on the floor. When one or both of them come off, it gets a little shakier, but those stretches don't come often. When it comes to scoring the ball, Trent is still largely catch and shoot, and has done what he's always done - kill bad teams. We'll see if he can pick it up against better competition. Legion hasn't gotten enough floor time to really emerge on offense, but that may come if Trent isn't able to work better against Big Ten teams.

Chester has improved on offense, particularly with regard to his willingness to shoot. I've never had any problems with his shooting mechanics, in general. This year, he's shooting 45% from the field, 38% from 3, and has looked like he belongs on the offensive end of the court. He's still passing up some open shots that should be taken, but he looks a lot more comfortable out there.

What's been a nice surprise has been the emergence of both Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale. Davis has gotten some national attention with his article in SI, which is nice. My comment last year was that his offensive game was pretty advanced for a freshman. Happily, his development this year has made me look like a reasonable talent evaluator. He's comfortable catching and shooting from 17' in, he can take a dribble and pull up, as well. He's still not the back to the basket threat that Brian Cook was (the player that I compared him to last year), but he is more explosive than Cook ever was, and has a knack for rebounding in traffic. I'm still not sold on him having a NBA body, but still think that he's got All-Big Ten potential.

Tisdale has also emerged nicely this year. He showed a lot of toughness last year, so you knew that he was willing to compete on D. He's also improved his toughness on the offensive end, and has made the most of his nice interior game. He's also improved his catch and shoot game. Having two bigs that can knock down mid-range spot-up jumpers is huge in our offense. One of our biggest problems last year was the inability, of either Pruitt or Randle, to knock down 12' jumpers. This year, both of our bigs can do that, and have done it all year.

One of our big question marks is with our forwards after Davis and Tisdale. Our new transfer Dominique Keller has been a nice addition, emerging as our 3rd forward. He's not a particularly good shooter, but works well inside, despite being a bit undersized against most 4's. I'm still not sure about this guy, and need to see more before I can really give a legit evaluation. And if we need a 4th forward, it's our old favorite Calvin Brock. What's nice is that we've finally realized that he's not a guard. He plays 4 for this team, which is actually perfect for his skill set, and gives him a simpler role in this offense. Unfortunately he's 6'5" and not 6'8". But the important thing is that we're not relying on him as a ball handler. And to his credit, Calvin has accepted the role, and been able to give us a little energy off of the bench.

The hallmark for this team is still it's defense, which Bruce Weber is very good with. Even last year, we still played reasonably well on D. We just couldn't score. This year, our defense is better, since our bigs avoid cheap fouls, unlike Randle and Pruitt. Weber has constantly challenged Dimitri to become a dominant perimeter defender. He's still not there, yet, but you can definitely see the improvement in his D, as well. Ditto for Trent, who will never become a dominant perimeter defender, but has improved to the point where he's not a liability. But the guy who really makes the D work is Chester, who I think is on par with Dee Brown as an on-the-ball defender. In this last game against Purdue, the announcers suggested that Chester and Kramer (from Purdue) were the two best perimeter defenders in the Big Ten. He hasn't had to rebound as much this year, but still comes up with big rebounds when we need it. The D isn't going anywhere, which is always reassuring, since we won't get blown out of games, unless we just shoot really, really, really badly (like the games at Wisconsin and Minnesota the last 2 weeks).

Right now, we're 19-5, 7-4 in conference, tied for 2nd in the Big Ten, and ranked somewhere in the 20-30 range nationally. A look at our schedule suggests that we'll go 5-2 the rest of the way (figure that between games at home against Minnesota and Michigan St., and road games at Penn St. and Ohio St., we'll go 2-2, though we've got just as good of a chance to go 3-1), which puts us at 24-7, and probably 2nd in the conference and a 1st round bye in the Big Ten Tourney. Our resume looks pretty good. 2 W's over Purdue and the W's over Mizzou and Ohio St. are all good. The Tulsa and Vandy W's still hold some value. And we don't have any bad losses. If we can go 2-1 in the tourney, we're probably looking at a 4 or 5 seed in the Dance. And winning the Big Ten tourney may get us up to a 2/3 seed. But if you look around the country, you really only buy into 2, maybe 3 teams (UNC and UConn for sure, maybe one of the Oklahoma/Pitt/Duke/L'Ville) as being Final Four "locks" (unlike last year, you had 4 teams who were dominant on their way to the all-1-seed Final Four ). Coming into this season, a run to the Sweet 16 would be considered an unqualified success. If we can keep our seed from getting below a 6, we'll have a real good shot at achieving that. This Illini squad has a real good shot against anyone outside of those 6 teams, and a run into the Elite 8 wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world. I won't get to watch it live like I have the past few years, but life on HD isn't all that bad, either, when you're winning.

-Chairman