Hindsight

So the NFL season is finally over. Pittsburgh. Ugh. Hate the Steelers. I was rooting for the Colts, but they sort of choked it against the Chargers, who in turn got run over by the Steelers. What was interesting was that the Colts-Chargers game and the Super Bowl both had a very interesting situation at the end of the game. The team that was ahead late in the 4th quarter had the ball at their own 1 yard line. The Colts were up 3, and ended up punting from their own 1 yard line to the Chargers, who promptly drove downfield, popped the figgie, and then won in overtime. As the Colts lined up to punt, I was watching the game at home, and talking to the TV. What was I saying?

"You gotta take the safety, right?"

Here's my logic. Say an average punt goes 45 yards, and an average punt return is 10 yards. That means that you would expect a 35 yard shift in field position. If you're punting from your own 1, then you'd expect the other team to get the ball back at around the 36. That's already in long field goal range. So the odds of the other team tying the game is very high, and the odds of them getting a TD for the clean win is moderate.

Now, if you take a safety, you're only up by 1 point. And you get a free kick from the 20, which doesn't seem like much of a gain. But in actuality, that's like a 30 yard shift in field position. When teams punt, they normally snap the ball back 14 yards, before the punter kicks it. So, a free kick from the 20 is more like a punt from the 32 (if you factor in the steps). Now, if you use the same 35-yard shift in field position, then you're looking at the other team getting the ball at their own 33. This is a much different scenario. The odds of them getting a game winning field goal are moderate, at best.

So what does this look like?

Take safety --> Other team scores and wins 40% of the time, you win 60% of the time.
Punt --> Other team scores a TD to win outright, 40% of the time. Other team attempts a FG 55% of the time. Other team doesn't score or attempt a FG 5% of the time.

The other thing to consider is that if they attempt the FG, they probably make 70% of the attempts. So, this puts it in OT, where you give it about a 50-50.

By my crude estimation, taking the safety gives you a 60% chance to win, but just punting from the 1 only gives you a 40% chance to win. I don't know what most coaches would do, but I suspect that most coaches do what Tony Dungy did. Punt from the 1. I believe that Dungy made a tactical mistake by not taking the safety.

Now flash forward a few weeks. Steelers up by 6, and have the ball at their own 1. Of course, you try to get the 1st down and end the game, but the 2nd most important thing is to milk as much clock as you can (3:26 left at that point). I'm still talking to the TV. What was I saying?

"Just run clock for 3 downs, and then take the safety, if you have to."

Instead the Steelers come up passing on 1st down (incomplete). And then they are obligated to run on 2nd and long to burn some clock, which everyone was expecting (no gain, but AZ burned their first time out). Now, I was expecting the Steelers to come out and run again, and force either a 2nd TO or to let the clock run down to the 2 minute warning. Instead, they try to pass for the 1st down. And they complete the pass, amazingly enough. But they get called for the safety, which is what I was sort of expecting. But the worst part is that they only burned 33 seconds (Warner got the ball back with 2:53 on the clock, and 2 TO's in hand, plus the 2 minute warning).

Now, we'll never know if the Steelers take the intentional safety if they had faced 4th down from their own one. But I think that the odds suggest even more strongly than with the Colts-Chargers example, that the safety would be the much better play (especially since a Cards TD would leave the Steelers down 3). But have a suspicion that Tomlin would've try to punt from the 1...

I think that I'm with Bill Simmons. Teams need to have their coaches play more Madden. These clock management situations are botched regularly in the NFL, which sort of makes sense. Playing Madden, you see so many more game situations, since you play so many more games.

Meanwhile, my Bengals still suck, and now my guy T.J. Who's Your Daddy is a free agent, and is extolling the virtues of Rex Grossman. Maybe Carson comes back healthy next season, but if not... this Bengals-fan purgatory is looking to continue.

-Chairman