Accuracy and Precision

Well, the regular season is over for our Illini. We'll either be Big Ten co-champs, or in 2nd place, a game behind Ohio St. I have to say. I am a little shocked that a team other than Illinois has a chance at 12 wins. But the Bucks managed to win at Michigan and Michigan St. (where the hell was the state of Michigan when we needed them to actually win?). So, we need Purdue to go into Columbus and upset Ohio St. on senior night. Probably not happening, but you never know.

I think that my original evaluation of the Illini was pretty right on. 25-5 was my original prediction (on Nov. 30) , and I was wavering between 26-4 and 25-5 back on Dec. 22, and again on Jan. 26. I think that I had a pretty good feel for our squad. Except for the Penn St. debacle. I still don't know how we lost this game. But I do know that at the first TV timeout in the 2nd half, I did lean over to the Jig and said, "you know, we're only up by 12..." and I've regretted making that statement ever since... And it's sort of disappointing to think that we may lose out on our third consecutive (and 5th in the last 6 years) Big Ten Title because we didn't execute at home against a bad team's 1-3-1.

But even though we may miss out on one of our goals, we are probably considered prohibitive favorites to win the Big Ten tourney for the 3rd time in 4 years. We'll have a tougher road than Ohio St., and will even fall to a 3 seed if Iowa beats Wisconsin. But even if we have a road that looks like Michigan St. - Iowa - Ohio St., I like our chances on a neurtal court against any of them. Plus, if we get a shot at Ohio St. somewhere other than Columbus, I think that we'll have a bit of a chip on our shoulders from the last two losses we've took from them.

Overall, it looks like we're playing for a 2 seed, but even with an early loss, I don't see us falling past a 3. But even though we're probably out of the running for a 1 seed, getting into the right side of the bracket will be nice for our Final Four chances. If we can play ourselves into the 5 or 6 slot, rather than the 7, 8, 9, or 10 slots in the S-Curve, then we can potentially avoid Duke/UConn until the Final Four, and will set up a much better looking Elite 8 matchup. Right now, it looks something like:

1-UConn
2-Duke
3-Villanova
4-Ohio St.
5-Memphis
6-Gonzaga
7-Illinois
8-Texas
9-George Washington
10-North Carolina
11-Pittsburgh
12-UCLA (maybe Washington or Tennessee?)

Let's just say that I'd much rather face the 11 or 12 team, than the 9 or 10 team, in the Sweet 16. And if it gets to the Elite 8, I'd much rather face 'Nova or Memphis than UConn or Duke. I think that Ohio St. has locked up a 2 seed, and is in contention for a 1 seed. And I think that we have a chance to actually leap them if we can win the tourney (aside from the head-to-head loss, we have a better looking profile than they do). Which means, we could possibly move up into that 4/5/6 range, which is a big jump, even though it doesn't look like it.

Anyway, we'll have a lot more figured out after the rest of the Big Ten sorts itself out. Go Purdue? Maybe they can Boiler Up, or something, and knock Ohio St. off.

-Chairman