Vengeance
Illinois 68, North Carolina 64
The Illini are the new National Champions!
Okay, so maybe not. Maybe this game wasn't on Monday April 5, 2005 in St. Louis. Maybe Deron Williams, Luther Head, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, Sean May, and Marvin Williams are all millionaires in the NBA now. And maybe North Carolina was unranked coming into the game. But, it was a legitimate win for a young team that may be on the verge of something great. But, it was a win in Chapel Hill, right in the heart of Tobacco Road against one of the 2 marquee ACC schools. But, when North Carolina gels a little more and starts to roll, this will look much better on the resume than it does now.
I like how this squad moves at times. Our young guards are willing to move the ball and pass. They will look to get the ball inside. Our bigs are pretty active on the glass, and actually seem to be willing to bang on the inside. Randle seems to be back better than ever - makes you wonder how last year would have looked if he hadn't broken his hand. Dee can still fly up and down faster than anyone else on the court. Rich looks more active on offense. And I've liked Jamar Smith's game so far. He has a really pure jumper. Love the release - high and with a great follow-through.
But, we're young. The young guys still look around a little too much, expecting Dee to make something happen. Our bigs are still inconsistent on offense. And I'm wondering if we'll only have 2 big men all season. We really need either Warren to get into the flow of the offense (and stop looking lost), or Marcus Arnold to start playing for real. Ideally, both happens. And with Jamar, he missed a tough front end that could have iced the game. Happily, we pulled the game out, so he gets a learning experience that didn't cost the team.
Where I'm a little afraid is actually with Dee Brown. He's done a nice job carrying the load by himself a lot. He's good on D and in transition. And he does a nice job of passing off the dribble, both with the drive and drop or the drive and kick out. I love how tough he is, and I love how much heart he has. But when things slow down Dee still has some issues with running a half-court offense (namely not being able to make entry passes). It's scary, sometimes. I don't know if I've seen him make a successful lob entry this season. And more and more, I don't see Auggie fighting for position when Dee has the ball on his side. I hate to say this, but I think that Dee is hurting his NBA stock, and playing himself out of the first round. I just hope that I'm wrong.
As for my past critical comments on Bruce? Still under review. He seems to do a great job preparing the team before the game, and between halves. It just seems that we have stretches where the other team catches on, and we dont change it up quickly enough to prevent a run. And my point isn't that he isn't a good coach. Really, aside from Mike Davis and whoever's unlucky enough to be at Penn St., there are no bad coaches in the Big Ten. My point has always been that he hasn't shown that he's an elite coach. But giving credit where it is due - his record at Illinois is 69-9, and something like 56-4 (North Carolina, Ohio. St., Duke, and Wisconsin, all either on the road or neutral site) since we started out 3-3 in the Big Ten in his first season and he had his Bill Self funeral.
This team has a lot of room to grow up. This isn't the team from last year. Last year, after watching the first 8 minutes of the Gonzaga game, I was making calls across the country telling people that we were the best team in the country, without a doubt. This isn't the team that I predicted was going to destroy then-#1 Wake Forest when they came to visit. This is a team that will do well, end up being one of the top 16 teams in the country. As for where in the top 16? I have no idea. I'm not sure if we are quite as good as Duke, UConn, Michigan St., or Texas. But I think that we can give any of those guys a run, if we come together and have some of the young guys develop more.
As far as a prediction goes let's be cautiously optimistic. How about 25-5 in the regular season (losses at Oregon, at Indiana, at Ohio St., at Wisconsin, and at Michigan St.) and 12-4 in the Big Ten, good for a share of the title. Runner up to Michigan St. in the Big Ten tourney, and make it to the Sweet 16. I'm probably a little optimistic about the regular season, but I think that there's a chance that we could be a little better than this in the tourney. Who knows? It'll be a fun ride, though.
-Chairman
2 comments:
Pretty good analysis of the game... I agree with your concern on Dee (speaking of him... does he have ANY leg at all showing? Is there another player in the nation who has his socks pulled to his knees and his XXXL shorts below them? Do you think that his legs are discolored or overly hairy? Does he have a leg-length embarassing tattoo that he got when he was like 16 of a dragon or something?). Anyway, Dee-Pants reminds me some of my boy Tony "Oui" Parker for the Spurs and a little of A.I. He is ridiculous quick, but CAN'T SHOOT THREES! Weber needs to tell him to quit that shit. Oui has pretty much stopped shooting threes this year and his shooting percentage has been the best it's ever been. I mean, seriously, Pants is shooting 28% on them this year. And you didn't really bring up Augustine. This guy is, for lack of a better word, a pussy. In fact, I'm not even gonna say that someone is a pussy anymore... instead, they will be an Augustine. I have no idea how he is averaging 15 and 10. If he weren't so soft, don't you think those numbers would damn near double? If he just demanded the ball (as he should) wouldn't he be kinda scary? Isn't that why he got his hair cut short anyway?
As far as their record goes, I was too thinking, at best, Sweet Sixteen. I give them about 9 losses though (even though I haven't looked at their schedule). If the young guys stop depending on the "All-American" to make everything ok (and they keep referring to Pants that way, which kind of annoys me) they might pick up a few more wins.
Regarding Dee - he's good as a spot up shooter. Where his percentage goes down is when he tries to shoot 3's off the dribble against someone who's actually guarding him.
Auggie has been able to get 12 points per game throughout his career without having any plays run for him. All of his stuff comes from putbacks, hustle plays, and transition. He'll fight for position a couple times early in the first half, but when he doesn't get the ball (in the past, both Luther Head and Dee Brown have looked him off quite a bit), he'll stop fighting for that position and become a screener. He's a good rebounder, even in traffic. I don't question how he plays D, really. I just wish that he would assert himself more on offense.
In all honesty, Auggie and Nick Smith had their careers derailed when Bill Self left. Instead of the high-low (Nick Smith was pretty good in the high, and Auggie does a nice job in the low when 1-on-1), we went to this guard oriented motion.
As for the team, 9 losses wouldn't be out of the question, but here's the thing. We're really, really good at home. I don't see us losing more than 1 or 2 at home. And the rest of the schedule is mediocre. I'd be really surprised if we took more than 8 losses.
-Chairman
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